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Trade Balance – 13 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by admin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 13-01-2012

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Bullish Trend. RSI is going up very fast and is already at doors of oversold zone. At this moment it is at 78. Both trixes are green and crossed. And we have green bullish divergence.

Hourly Chart:

Very strong bullish trend as well. RSI is already deep inside oversold zone and is still going up. At this moment it is at 91. Trixes are crossed anod both were red, but fast trix have now change color to green.

15 Minute Chart:

Still bullish trend. But RSI is already going down after being in oversold zone for some time. At this moment it is at 47. Both trixes are red and crossed. And we have red bearish divergence.

5 Minute Chart:

Bullish trend here as well. RSI is going up and at this moment it is at 60. Trixes are both green and crossed. And now we have another green bullish divergence.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,27851 and we have open high above it at 1,28135. Looks like Euro is getting power.

Support Lines:
1,27581
1,27304
1,27128
1,26959
1,26682
1,26405

Resistance Lines:
1,28128
1,28405
1,28581
1,28749
1,29026
1,29303

Plan:
It looks like we have change whole trend and from now on we could easy be going up. So soon i will try to find a good spot to enter for bullish trend. Maybe it will be today or at Monday. I prefer Monday because today is Friday and over weekend things can change.

Forex News:
Today in last day in a week. And it is a Friday the 13th. We have Trade Balance day. Both for Euro and USD, but more important is the USA Trade Balance. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment for US dollar is another important news for today.

We will not trade at this times:
10:30 – 11:30
14:00 – 15:00
15:25 – 16:25
16:40 – 17:40

11:00EUR
Trade Balance
0.7B
0.3B
14:30USD
Trade Balance
-44.8B
-43.5B
14:30USD
Import Prices m/m
0.0%
0.7%
15:55USD
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
71.2
69.9
15:55USD
Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
3.1%
17:10USD
FOMC Member Duke Speaks

ECB Press Conference – 12 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by admin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 12-01-2012

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Neutral trend. But position of price movement say we can easy go down. RSI is not moving anywhere. Right now is climbing and it is at 40. Trixes are crossed and both are red. But there is small green dot on fast trix.

Hourly Chart:

Already strong bullish trend. RSI is going up and it is at 59. Slow trix is green and is going up. Fast trix is red and is swinging to cross slow trix. As well we have red bearish divergence.

15 Minute Chart:

Bullish trend. RSI is going up towards overbought zone. At this moment it is at 68. Trixes are both green and crossed. As well we have green bullish divergence.

5 Minute Chart:

As well on this chart we see bullish trend. RSI is going down however. At this moment it is at 61. Lots of ups and downs. Trixes are very close to each other and at this moment both are green.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,27186 and we have open below it at 1,27048 and since opening we are moving between this two lines.

Support Lines:
1,26941
1,26701
1,26552
1,26402
1,26156
1,25911

Resistance Lines:
1,27432
1,27671
1,27821
1,27977
1,28216
1,28462

Plan:
It looks like we are in situation where we are not sure what will happen. We are once again near lowest point in last 2 years. Are we going to go more down or will swing is about to see.

Forex News:
Today we really have trading day where many things will happen. there are many important news in front of us. Minimum Bid Rate, ECB Press Conference, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and Unemployment Claims are all important news for today. First 2 will effect Euro and all others will do impact on USD.

So we will not trade between this times:
7:00 – 11:30
13:15 – 15:00
15:30 – 17:00
19:30 – 20:30

7:30EUR
French CPI m/m
0.4%
0.2%
0.3%
8:00EUR
German Final CPI m/m
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
8:45EUR
French Gov Budget Balance
-97.2B
-99.4B
10:00EUR
Italian Industrial Production m/m
0.3%
-0.2%
-0.9%
 11:00EUR
Industrial Production m/m
-0.2%
-0.1%
13:45EUR
Minimum Bid Rate
1.00%
1.00%
14:30EUR
ECB Press Conference
14:30USD
Core Retail Sales m/m
0.3%
0.2%
14:30USD
Retail Sales m/m
0.3%
0.2%
14:30USD
Unemployment Claims
373K
372K
16:00USD
Business Inventories m/m
0.4%
0.8%
16:30USD
Natural Gas Storage
-87B
-76B
20:00USD
Federal Budget Balance
-79.0B
-137.3B

EU Recovery? – 10 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by admin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 10-01-2012

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Very strong bullish trend. RSI is going up very fast and is already at 63.Trixes are crossed and both are green. They are going up very fast.

Hourly Chart:

On hourly chart we have totally different scenario. We have very strong bearish trend. RSI is going down fast and is already at 39. Slow trix is red for some time and we have 2 red bearish divergences. As well fast trix is red now.

15 Minute Chart:

Very strong bearish trend. RSI have gone to oversold zone just after being in overbought zone. Right now it is still going down and it is already at 13. Trixes are crossed and both are red. Both of them are going down and we have red bearish divergence.

5 Minute Chart:

Very strong bearish trend. RSI is going up after visiting oversold zone and is already at 37. Slow trix is red and is going down. As well we have red bearish divergence, but fast trix is changing color to green and is swinging back up.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,27385 and we have open above it at 1,27640. Now is this some sign for Euro recovery or is just swing we will soon see.

Support Lines:
1,27154
1,26928
1,26788
1,26657
1,26422
1,26196

Resistance Lines:
1,27610
1,27846
1,27976
1,28117
1,28343
1,28568

Plan:
It looks like we have some signs of bullish movement and i m not sure that we will go bullish. There are no reasons for this. EU is till in trouble and Greece is real problem. And new recession coming soon will not help at all.

Forex News:
Same story today as yesterday. Some news, some are medium importance some are not even so important. Expect no big movements during this news. But we will still not enter a trade when they are coming out.
So we will not trade between this times:
8:15 – 9:15
15:30 – 17:40

8:45EUR
French Industrial Production m/m
1.1%
0.1%
0.1%
 16:00USD
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
45.3
42.8
16:00USD
Wholesale Inventories m/m
0.5%
1.6%
16:30USD
FOMC Member Williams Speaks
17:10USD
FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks

Sentix Investor Confidence – 9 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by Superadmin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 09-01-2012

Tags:

If you are reading us on Monday then you know that 4 Hours Chart and Hourly Chart is in Weekly Forex Analyze Topic

15 Minute Chart:

Mega strong bullish trend. RSI is high in a overbought zone and it is there for some time. RSI is at 95 and is not looking to go down. Slow trix is for long time green and moving up. Fast trix is as well green and is moving up. Both of them are near overbought zone.

5 Minute Chart:

As well mega strong bullish trend. RSI is going up towards overbought zone. It is at 71 at this moment. Trixes are changing color a lot. Right now both are changed to green color but they are crossed red and gave bearish signal prior this.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,27422 and we have open really deep below it at 1,26943 and maybe that deep low opening is making our price go up and being already at Fibonacci Pivot Line.

Support Lines:
1,27202
1,26983
1,26851
1,26712
1,26493
1,26274

Resistance Lines:
1,27641
1,27866
1,27998
1,28137
1,28356
1,28575

Plan:
We have some heavy bullish movement and this can be only swing back up and we can easy turn back down. Because trend is very strong on bigger charts for bearish movement.

Forex News:
Today we dont have some really important news. There are several medium importance and some not so important news. But we will still not trade between this times:
7:30 – 9:15
10:00 – 11:00
11:30 – 12:30
18:10 – 19:10
20:30 – 21:30

8:00EUR
German Trade Balance
15.1B
12.3B
12.5B
8:45EUR
French Trade Balance
-4.4B
-5.8B
-5.6B
 10:30EUR
Sentix Investor Confidence
-23.8
-24.0
12:00EUR
German Industrial Production m/m
-0.5%
0.8%
18:40USD
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
21:00USD
Consumer Credit m/m
7.2B
7.6B

Unemployment Rate – 6 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by Superadmin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 06-01-2012

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Very strong bearish trend. RSI is deep in oversold zone. It have drop into oversold zone just after being in overbought zone. At this moment it is at 8 and is still going down. We had red bearish divergence and trixes were both red. Slow trix is still red and going down, but fast trix is swinging back up and is green.

Hourly Chart:

Neutral trend. RSI is going up after checking oversold zone. We had green bullish divergence and trixes were green. Slow trix is still green and going up. But fast trix have change color to red and we now have red bearish divergence.

15 Minute Chart:

Very strong bullish trend. After checking overbought zone RSI was going down and now is once again going up, it is at 54. Trixes are green and are crossed. They are moving in parallel way.

5 Minute Chart:

Bullish trend. RSI is going up after checking oversold zone and now is near overbought zone. It is at 69. We had 3 red bearish divergences, but price is moving up and down. Now both trixes are green and they are about to cross.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,28344 and we have open deep below it at 1,27875 and are right now moving around this line.

Support Lines:
1,28008
1,27875
1,27671
1,27460
1,27257
1,26920
1,26584

Resistance Lines:
1,28680
1,29016
1,29220
1,29431
1,29767
1,30104

Plan:
We have once again go down and today we have open at the lowest point since July 2010. So it is possible to see us go down since we breake many big resistance lines.

Forex News:

Italian Bank have Holiday and today once again US Dollar will have important news. Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate both starting at 14:30.
We will not trade in this times:
10:30 – 12:30
14:00 – 15:30
18:10 – 19:30

All DayEUR
Italian Bank Holiday
 11:00EUR
Retail Sales m/m
-0.2%
0.3%
 11:00EUR
Unemployment Rate
10.3%
10.3%
12:00EUR
German Factory Orders m/m
-1.6%
5.2%
14:30USD
Non-Farm Employment Change
152K
120K
14:30USD
Unemployment Rate
8.7%
8.6%
14:30USD
Average Hourly Earnings m/m
0.2%
-0.1%
15:00USD
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
18:40USD
FOMC Member Duke Speaks
19:00USD
FOMC Member Raskin Speaks

Unemployment Claims – 5 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by Superadmin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 05-01-2012

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Very bearish trend. RSI is low and it got to oversold zone after just several hours being inside overbought zone. Both trixes are crossed and are red. As well we have red bearish divergence.

Hourly Chart:

On this chart we see neutral trend. RSI is moving up fast. It is already at 60. Trixes went to oversold zone and there they have cross and turn color to green. Since then they move pretty high and are now still green and still going up.

15 Minute Chart:

Neutral trend on this chart as well. But RSI went into overbought zone after just couple of minutes being in oversold zone. At this moment it is at 65. We have green bullish divergence. Trixes have just cross and both are green.

5 Minute Chart:

Bullish trend. RSI is moving down after visiting overbought zone. It is at this moment at 49 and still going down. We had 3 green bullish divergences and 1 red bearish divergence in last 3 hours. Slow trix is green for some time and fast trix is trying to change to red color but always go back to green.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,29705 and we have open below it at 1,29420 and at this moment our price action is going on below open line.

Support Lines:
1,29365
1,29034
1,28832
1,28621
1,28290
1,27960

Resistance Lines:
1,30035
1,30366
1,30577
1,30779
1,31110
1,31450

Plan:
Trends are once again messed up and it is unclear where are we going. We are very low and it looks like Euro is having hard time to move the price up.

Forex News:
Many news for today. Most important news for today are: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. All of them will happen in USA and will effect US Dollar. They are coming out at this times: 14:15, 14:30 and 16:00.
We will not enter a trade at this times:
7:30 – 8:30
9:30 – 11:30
13:45 – 15:00
15:30 – 17:30

8:00EUR
German Retail Sales m/m
-0.9%
0.2%
-0.2%
10:00EUR
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
8.5%
8.5%
10:00EUR
Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
8.1%
8.0%
11:00EUR
Industrial New Orders m/m
2.4%
-6.2%
11:00EUR
PPI m/m
0.1%
0.1%
13:30USD
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
-12.8%
14:15USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
176K
206K
14:30USD
Unemployment Claims
375K
381K
16:00USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
53.0
52.0
16:30USD
Natural Gas Storage
-78B
-81B
17:00USD
Crude Oil Inventories
-1.4M
3.9M

Total Vehicle Sales – 4 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by Superadmin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 04-01-2012

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Neutral trend. RSI was in overbought zone and is now going down away from it. It is already out at 69 and still going down. We have 2 red bearish divergences and now fast trix have changed color back to red, but slow trix is still green and still going up.

Hourly Chart:

Bullish trend. RSI after visiting overbought zone visited doors of oversold zone and now is going back up. It is already at the middle at 53. Trixes were both red, but now fast trix is giving green bullish divergence signal and have turned color to green.

15 Minute Chart:

Very strong bearish trend. RSI is going fast down. After almost reaching overbought zone it turned down and is already at 40. We have 2 red bearish divergences and fast trix color is now red. But slow trix is still green and slowly going up.

5 Minute Chart:

Bearish trend. RSI is going down after checking overbought zone. It is at 45. Both trixes are red and crossed. Both of them are going down. As well we have red bearish divergence.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,30184 and we have open above it at 1,30488 and at this moment we are moving between this two lines.

Support Lines:
1,29907
1,29631
1,29463
1,29289
1,29013
1,28736

Resistance Lines:
1,30461
1,30743
1,30911
1,31084
1,31361
1,31637

Plan:
It looks like bullish movement is over or is just taking a break. So be smart now. We have good signals to back both trends, but we should wait for some confirmations.

Forex News:

Today we have many news and some are more and some are less important. But all day we will have Total Vehicle Sales and this can move price up and down.
We will not trade between this times:
8:15 – 11:30
15:30 – 16:30

8:45EUR
French Consumer Spending m/m
-0.1%0.3%
0.0%
10:00EUR
Final Services PMI
48.3
48.3
11:00EUR
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
2.8%
3.0%
11:00EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
0.3%
-0.1%
16:00USD
Factory Orders m/m
1.9%
-0.4%
All DayUSD
Total Vehicle Sales
13.5M
13.6M

Holidays Are Over – 3 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by Superadmin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 03-01-2012

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Neutral trend. We now see some bullish movement on this chart. RSI is going up and is already near overbought zone at 71. We had red bearish divergence but it failed and now are both trixes green and going up.

Hourly Chart:

Strong bullish trend. RSI is going up and is already in overbought zone. It is at 80. We had green bullish divergence and both trixes are crossed and green. They are still going up.

15 Minute Chart:

Very strong bullish trend. RSI is going up and is near overbought zone. It is at 71. We had red bearish divergence, but trixes have cross and both are red now. So more bullish movement is expected.

5 Minute Chart:

Very strong bullish trend. RSI is going up and is already near overbought zone. It is at 77. Trixes are both green. Fast trix have change color for some time to red but is now back to green.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,29393 and we have open below at 1,29328 and went high up above all resistance lines.

Support Lines:
1,29293
1,29197
1,29136
1,29074
1,28978
1,28878

Resistance Lines:
1,29489
1,29589
1,29647
1,29708
1,29808
1,29904

Plan:
We are high, we have gone above resistance line 3 and i m not sure what will happen today. Will we go more up is not so possible unless this day is somehow special. So i m more happy to trade down if i get more stronger signals to back me up.

Forex News:
Holidays are over and we are starting to trade seriously. Today we only have 2 important news. And that news will effect US Dollar. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 and FOMC Meeting Minutes at 20:15.
As well we will not trade between this hours:
9:25 – 10:25
15:30 – 16:30
19:45 – 20:45

9:55EUR
German Unemployment Change
-9K
-20K
16:00USD
ISM Manufacturing PMI
53.3
52.7
16:00USD
Construction Spending m/m
0.6%
0.8%
16:00USD
ISM Manufacturing Prices
47.6
45.0
20:15USD
FOMC Meeting Minutes

9:55
EUR

German Unemployment Change

-9K
-20K
16:00
USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

53.3
52.7
16:00
USD

Construction Spending m/m

0.6%
0.8%
16:00
USD

ISM Manufacturing Prices

47.6
45.0
20:15
USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Bank Holidays – 2 Jan 2012 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by Superadmin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 02-01-2012

Tags:

4 hours Chart and Hourly Chart you can see in Weekly Forex Topic.

15 Minute Chart:

Very strong bullish trend. RSI is high in overbought zone and still going up. We have green bullish divergence and both trixes are green and going up.

5 Minute Chart:

As well on this chart RSI is high and as well on this chart we have strong bullish trend. RSI is at 79 and is near overbought zone. We had red bearish divergence, but it have fail to go down. Trixes were crossed green and now fast trix is changing color to red.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,29527 and we have open below it at 1,29356. And are right now moving around this line.

Support Lines:
1,29345
1,29167
1,29055
1,28945
1,28764
1,28585

Resistance Lines:
1,29705
1,29887
1,29996
1,30109
1,30287
1,30469

Plan:
On this smaller charts we are bullish and on big charts we are bearish. So it is not ideal situation. Maybe we should wait for some news to come out and see if we will change direction.

Forex News:
Euro Banks are still on holiday and only news for today will happen at 10:00 and that news is not important. As well US Banks are on holidays. So we will have boring trading day.

All DayEUR
French Bank Holiday
All DayEUR
Italian Bank Holiday
 10:00EUR
Final Manufacturing PMI
46.9
46.9
All DayUSD
Bank Holiday

Unemployment Claims – 29 Dec 2011 Euro/Dollar THV 4 Analyze

Posted by Superadmin | Posted in Long Forex Trades | Posted on 29-12-2011

Tags:

4 Hours Chart:

Bearish trend. Yesterday we drop fast for many pips. RSI is now deep in oversold zone and is looking to go out of it. It is at 14. Trixes are both red and are going down.

Hourly Chart:

Already neutral trend on this chart. RSI is in the middle at 42 and is not going anywhere. Trixes are crossed and both are green and both are going up.

15 Minute Chart:

Weak bullish trend. RSI is near overbought zone. It is at 78 and still going up fast. Trixes are very close to each other and at this moment both are green.

5 Minute Chart:

Neutral trend. RSI is moving down fast after visiting overbought zone. Both trixes are red and are going to cross over for bearish signal.

Fibonacci Pivot Line is at 1,29765 and we have open below it at 1,29399 and are not moving away from our opening line.

Support Lines:
1,29444
1,29122
1,28928
1,28734
1,28412
1,28091

Resistance Lines:
1,30087
1,30408
1,30603
1,30797
1,31119
1,31440

Plan:
We had a huge drop recently and i m not sure if this means another bearish movement or it is just spike before New Year. Not sure and it is best to relax and wait New Year. Today is last preview i m writing in 2011. Tomorrow is Friday and no news and i will not trade.

Forex News:
Many news for today and this is the last real trading day in 2011. We have 2 important news Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales m/m, both will have effect on US Dollar.
We will not trade between this hours:
9:30 – 10:30
14:00 – 15:00
15:15 – 17:30

All DayEUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

  0.8%0.0%
10:00EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

  2.5%2.6%
10:00EUR

Private Loans y/y

  2.7%2.7%
14:30USD

Unemployment Claims

  372K364K
15:45USD

Chicago PMI

  60.462.6
16:00USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

  1.7%10.4%
16:30USD

Natural Gas Storage

  -88B-100B
17:00USD

Crude Oil Inventories

  -2.9M-10.6M