17th August to 21th August 2009 Euro / USD
Posted by admin | Posted in Weekly and Daily Wake up | Posted on 17-08-2009
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EURO/USD rebounded from previous week’s 1.4086. The rebounding of EURO/USD got restricted to 1.4326 which is below the 1.4328 resistances and reversed back. The rebound is completed and alternates the intraday bias right away downside at the break of 1.4213support which is however a minor one. It can be assumed that if the pair goes below 1.0860, this will bring resumption of 1.4007 support after this. This break may confirm that the top at medium term is already forged at 1.4446. This will be confirmed when focus gets turned to 1.3747 support.
In larger picture frame, it’s indicated that increase from 1.2456 of previous week is considered as the third leg of the entire consolidation pattern which in fact begins at 1.2329. This trail of EURO/USD pair has been completed at 1.4446 with five waves pattern. This completion is marked with bearish divergence of MACD and RSI on daily basis. This will be confirmed by the break at 1.3747 support and this will bring about the abstruse decline which will make EURO/USD pair wade through 1.2329 low.
If the pair goes above 1.4446, then this will indicate that increase from 1.2456 is in progress and likely to rise further more. However, as the pair of EURO/USD nears the 61.8 % retracement at 1.4622 of support 1.6039 to 1.2329 poses strong resistance which at the end is likely to bring reversal.
In the bigger picture, as the chart indicates, the price actions beginning at 1.2329 is merely a consolidation in the downtrend. Once, the consolidation is completed, this is likely to resume fall from 1.6039. If the pair stoops down further below1.2329, then this will indicate that this down trend has posed a test on the 1.1639 key for longer duration. This m can be concluded that we have to consider this long term bearish view until the resistance is held at 1.4867.
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