14th September to 18th September 2009 Euro / USD
Posted by admin | Posted in Weekly and Daily Wake up | Posted on 16-09-2009
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Fortunately, EUR/USD witnessed a high of 1.4633 previous week with the retracement of 61.8%. This retracement took place at 1.4622 of 1.6039 to 1.2329. After retracement is achieved the decline in the momentum of the pair could be observed since then. An intraday high position is to be maintained as MACD was below the signal line for about 4 hours. There may bechances of some pull back however initial bias is at neutral. The pull back can be seen at 55 EMA for 4 hours which at this point is at 1.4435. It is to be considered that there are no chances of soaring high further up till the 1.4177 support is maintained. If in case a rise occurs, then there would be a strong resistance posed within the resistance zone of 1.4622/2867. A reversal indication can be expected from this point.
In the larger frame, the situation is still similar to the previous one and the rise up to 1.2456 is in fact the third leg in the consolidation pattern which begun at 1.2329. Price actions at1.3747 may later develop into the fifth wave of a diagonal triangle in a five wave sequence pattern beginning from1.2456. This is on the verge of completion.
If EUR/USD attains 1.4446 high, then there are chances of rise further however, upside is restrained in the resistance zone with 61.8% retracement at 1.4622 of 1.6039 to 1.2329. This rise will bring back reversal. If 1.4177 support further declines on the downside, then this will be an indication that EUR/USD pair has already attained top. This will get confirmed with the break of 1.3747 support. In such situation the further fall will drop EUR/USD beyond 1.2329 low consequently.
However, in larger picture frame price actions from 12329 is considered as the consolidation in down trend. The consolidation pattern will complete resuming 1.1639 fall. Below 1.2329 will be considered as test on 1.1639 key support for longer duration. This long term bearish point would be considered as long as the resistance 1.4867 is consistent.
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